Two months: had you followed the list
| Universe | Following the picks | Same-period comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Korean stocks | -24.6% | KOSPI +8.0% |
| Korean ETFs | -4.4% | KODEX200 +10.5% |
| US stocks | -4.6% | SPY +0.8% |
Two months is short and could be luck. So we asked the same question of twelve years.
Twelve years: not one winning year
Across 4,249 stocks including delisted ones, we ran the home page’s Korean-stock rule exactly as it appears on screen (top 12 after sorting, the rotation period, trading costs). After costs it returned -53% a year, and lost to the KOSPI in all 13 years.
Seven price-and-volume alternatives were tested too; none beat the KOSPI across three sub-periods. The ETF-picking rules all trailed simply holding KODEX200 by 6–10 percentage points a year.
What about financial statements?
Cheap-versus-earnings, cheap-and-profitable, the Magic Formula, sturdy low-volatility, earnings growth — five rules tested over ten years. Zero passed. The best returned +0.5% a year while the KOSPI returned +12.4%.
Filings told us where to stay away
Analyzing 480,000 filings over ten years, the only event worth following was a share buyback (and only in small, thinly traded stocks). Major-shareholder changes, rights offerings, convertible bonds, mergers, lawsuits and unfaithful disclosures kept falling afterwards.
What the owner said
Check whether this site is really right, all the way through. Don’t hide bad results.
So here is what I did
- Calculated two months and twelve years separately — using the rules exactly as shown on screen
- Tested seven price-and-volume alternatives, five financial-statement rules, and filing events by type
- Wrote the pass criteria before running, so they couldn’t be bent after seeing results
- Instead of ‘what to buy’, added a list of ‘20 trading days after a filing’ to home section ④, Places to avoid
What the owner didDeciding to publish the results rather than hide them
What we learned
- A plausible rule splits apart over twelve years. So far, zero stock-picking rules have beaten the index consistently.
- Write the pass bar before running. Adjusting candidates after seeing results finds things that are right by luck.
- What to avoid survived the numbers better than what to buy — so the site is growing the ‘avoid’ side.